Album {W!P} UKR[iii] - Ukraine [2026/ ... invasion] from StoneRoad2013

UKR[26] - sitrep : 17th Jan 2026

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Sat, 17 Jan 2026 22:25:15 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

UKR[26] - sitrep : 17th Jan 2026 ---

UKR shot down (or EWCwd) 96 of 115 strike and decoy drones last night, of which c75 were Shaheds ie had warheads.

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 16th Jan 2026 {pt1}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Fri, 16 Jan 2026 22:25:14 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

UKR[26] - sitrep : 16th Jan 2026 {pt1} ---

UKR defence forces shot down (or EWCed) 53 of 76 strike & decoy drones fired overnight. No missiles reported.
intercept rate 53 / 76 = 69.74 %

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 15th Jan 2026

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 21:25:13 +0000

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sitrep :15th Jan 2026 ---

UKR shot down or EWCed 61 of 82 strike & decoy drones launched overnight.

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 14th Jan 2026 {pt2}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Wed, 14 Jan 2026 22:24:54 +0000

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 14th Jan 2026 {pt2} ---

Ukrainian Air Force today [starting at 7:00 and up to 17:00] air defence forces shot down 10 jet-propelled UAVs on their way towards Kyiv.

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UKR[26] - "Novorossiya"as of 14th January 2026

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Wed, 14 Jan 2026 22:25:07 +0000

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ISW mapping of the Ukrainian territory claimed by the kremlin [putin] as "Novorossiya" as of 14th January 2026.

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 14th January 2026 {pt1}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Wed, 14 Jan 2026 21:25:11 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

sitrep : 14 January 2026 ---

UKR shot down one of three Iskander- M ballistic missiles and 89 of 113 strike & decoy drones.

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 13Jan2026 {pt4}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Tue, 13 Jan 2026 23:05:05 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

sitrep :13Jan2026 {pt4] ---

ISW graph showing their calculations of the 7-day moving average of Russian gains and infiltrations, covering from 11th June 2025 to 13th January 2026.
.
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UKR[26] - sitrep : 13Jan2026 {pt3}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Tue, 13 Jan 2026 22:55:06 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

sitrep : 13Jan2026 {pt3} ---

ISW chart recoding the size of the drone & missile attacks on Ukraine, between 13th January 2025 and 13th January 2026.

The size of strike packages is increasing from a relatively low level at the end of December, over 2025 the pattern seemed to be a very large [massive] strike package, combining drones & missiles, every few days. The intervening days had fewer, often many fewer, drones and sometimes a few missiles would be included.
Ukraine had a good shoot down rate on drones, less so on ballistic missiles, as intercepting a missile is more difficult due to the trajectory & speeds involved.

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 13Jan2026 {pt2}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Tue, 13 Jan 2026 22:25:10 +0000

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sitrep 13Jan2026 {pt2} ---

According to media reports, Ukrainian naval drones have attacked the "Delta Harmony" tanker near Novorossiysk
[member of ruzzia's shadow tanker fleet, so this action would be UKR enforcing oil industry sanctions]

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 13th Jan 2026 {pt1-Massive Attack}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Tue, 13 Jan 2026 22:25:03 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

sitrep : 13th Jan 2026 {pt1 - Massive Attack} ---

Overnight Russia launched 318 aerial weapons at Ukraine, comprising :-
18 Iskander-M ballistic missiles ;
7 Iskander-K cruise missiles ;
and 293 strike & decoy drones of various types.

UKR defence forces shot down, suppressed / intercepted 247 of the attacking weapons, comprising :-
2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles ;
5 Iskander-K cruise missiles ;
240 strike & decoy drones.

Overall intercept rate : 247 / 318 = 77.67 %
drones only 240 / 293 = 81.91 % missiles only 7 / 25 = 28.00 %
[even contending with the limited supply of patriot missiles].

Targets ??? damage / casualties TBC

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 12th Jan 2026

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Mon, 12 Jan 2026 12:21:10 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

UKR[26] - sitrep : 12th Jan 2026 ---

UKR shot down 135 of 156 strike & decoy drones - about 110 warheads - overnight, no missiles reported. Kyiv Odesa and civilian power & heat infrastructure targeted.
.
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UKR[26] - sitrep : 11th Jan 2026

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Sun, 11 Jan 2026 12:21:04 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

UKR[26] - sitrep : 11th Jan 2026 ---

Overnight, UKR shot down 125 of 154 strike & decoy drones - about 110 had warheads. No missiles reported.

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 10th Jan 2026 {pt2}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Sat, 10 Jan 2026 12:21:11 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

UKR[26] - sitrep : 10th Jan 2026 {pt2} ---

ISW chart showing the ruzzian drone & missile strikes on Ukraine, between 1st January 2025 to 9th January 2026.
[it looks like the ruzzians are saving up their weapons for a very large [Massive] attack, sometime in the relatively near future].

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 10th Jan 2026 {pt1}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Sat, 10 Jan 2026 12:21:30 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

sitrep : 10 Jan 2026 ---

Overnight UKR shot down or suppressed 94 of 121 strike & decoy drones, about 80 with warheads - mainly aimed at Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih and Odesa.
ru also fired one Iskander-M ballistic missile [target not specified at then time of this report].

intercept rate : 94 / 122 = 77.05%

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 10th Jan 2026

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Sat, 10 Jan 2026 12:21:13 +0000

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sitrep : 10th Jan 2026 ---
.
Debris suspected to be from the IRBM Oreshnik, found the following day in Lviv region.
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UKR[26] - Oreshnik : how MIRV works

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Fri, 09 Jan 2026 10:27:29 +0000

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BBC used this infographic in their coverage, describing how the MIRV system used by Oreshnik is thought to work.
In the two launches against Ukraine the warheads were Kinetic rods rather than low-yield / explosives.
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UKR[26] - sitrep : 9th Jan 2026 {pt1}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Fri, 09 Jan 2026 10:27:30 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

UKR[26] - sitrep : 9th Jan 2026 {pt1} ---
.
Overnight Russia launched 278 weapons at Ukraine, specifically :-
one Oreshnik IRBM at Lviv ;
242 strike & decoy drones of various types ;
13 Iskander-M / S-400 ballistic missiles ;
22 Kalibr cruise missiles .
.
The MIRV payload - probably kinetic rods - hit the critical civilian oil / gas infrastructure just outside Lviv.
Other targets inc Kyiv, where there were fatalities as 19 apartment buildings [blocks of flats] were hit, also there was damage to the Qatari Embassy.
.
UKR shot down, EWC'ed or otherwise intercepted 244 aerial targets, specifically :-
226 strike & decoy drones ;
8 Iskander-M / S-400 missiles
10 Kalibr cruise missiles.
.
Intercept rate was 244 / 278 = 87.77 %
.
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[edited to tidy up the formatting & information]

UKR[26] - sitrep : 08 Jan 2026 {pt4}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 10:27:28 +0000

StoneRoad2013 has posted:

sitrep : 8th Jan 2026 {pt4} ---
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CCTV video excerpt [still frame] of strike of IRBM / MRIV [Oreshnik] against Lviv - civilian oil/gas infrastructure - in retaliation for alleged attack on Valdavi presidential residence. UKR immediately denied making any such an attack, and there was no open-source evidence to support the allegation [ISW couldn't find any evidence after extensive searches].
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UKR[26] - sitrep : 8th Jan 2026 {pt3}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 15:06:39 +0000

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sitrep : 8th Jan 2026 {pt3} ---

Russian boats disabled in occupied Kherson region of Ukraine, sabotage by their own crews is suspected by ATESH observers. In particular, this applies to the launches / motorboats used around the islands and shallow waters of the Dnipro delta region. Possibly because these boats & their crews are very vulnerable to attacks by FPV & Loitering Drones.

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UKR[26] - sitrep : 8th Jan 2026 {pt2}

nobody@ipernity.com (StoneRoad2013) — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 15:06:45 +0000

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sitrep : 8th Jan 2026 {pt2} ---

Ukrainian Navy says Sea of Azov is too shallow and under our fire control [presumably, meaning Magura / SeaBaby marine uncrewed vessels], which makes Russia's Black Sea ~~Fleet~~ Flotilla afraid to send ships into Sea of Azov on a regular basis.

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